The Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks will be the favorite when the Japan Series begins, but there's no question the Yokohama DeNA BayStars have discovered some "Miura Magic" and may just pull off another upset.
That said, the Fukuoka-based Hawks have won six of the last 10 Japan Series, including in 2017 when they beat the BayStars four games to two.
The Pacific League champions also had the best record in NPB during the 2024 regular season with 91 wins, 49 losses and three ties for a .650 winning percentage.
Daisuke Miura's BayStars, on the other hand, finished third in the Central League with a record of 71 wins, 69 losses and three ties for a .507 winning percentage.
On paper, it appears to be a slam dunk for the Hawks but a funny thing happened on the way to the Japan Series.
The BayStars knocked off the defending Japan Series champion Hanshin Tigers in two games in the first stage of the Central League Climax Series. And then the BayStars beat the pennant-winning Yomiuri Giants four games to three in the second stage.
A Challenging Path to the Japan Series
Since the Climax Series was first held in the Pacific League in 2004, the Chiba Lotte Marines are the only team to finish third and then go on to win the Japan Series.
In 2010, the Marines beat the Saitama Seibu Lions and the Hawks in the two stages of the Climax Series and then won the Japan Series by beating the Chunichi Dragons with four wins, two losses and one tie.
The BayStars are hoping to repeat that rare feat. The team has found its mojo and has good reason to feel confident heading into the best-of-seven Japan Series, which begins at Yokohama Stadium on Saturday, October 26.
As for their popular manager, the BayStars announced a day after winning the CLCS Miura will continue at the helm for next season as well. Next season will be his fifth as skipper of Yokohama.
Let's take a look at each team and how they stack up in terms of pitching and hitting.
Yokohama Pitching
Everyone knew the BayStars had a formidable batting order heading into the postseason but there were some serious questions about the pitching. After winning six of eight games in the playoffs, consider those questions answered.
There was much hand-wringing when Trevor Bauer decided not to return to Yokohama this season after winning 10 games last year for the BayStars.
Yokohama didn't panic. The BayStars went out and signed former major league pitchers Anthony Kay and Andre Jackson and both have exceeded expectations.
Kay went a modest 6-9 in the regular season but has taken his game up a level in the postseason.
He was the Game 1 winner of the CLCS against the Giants, holding Yomiuri to one hit over six scoreless innings while striking out six.
Kay also started the final game against the Giants and went 3⅓ innings while giving up two runs on two hits before being taken out by Miura.
Jackson has been equally strong.
He went 8-7 in the regular season and won Game 2 of the Climax Series first stage against Hanshin and then pitched well in Game 4 of the Yomiuri series, giving up three earned runs while striking out three over 6⅓ innings.
It's fair to assume both Jackson and Kay will get a start against SoftBank given how well they have performed so far.
Shinichi Ohnuki also had a strong outing against the Giants as a starter while relievers Hiromu Ise, Yuya Sakamoto and Hayate Nakagawa have been impressive. Closer Kohei Morihara has got the job done when called upon.
SoftBank Pitching
Under first-year manager Hiroki Kokubo, the Hawks brushed aside the Hokkaido Nipponham Fighters with three straight wins in the Pacific League Climax Series Final Stage.
The Hawks feature a strong starting rotation that includes former major leaguer Kohei Arihara, Livan Moinelo and Carter Stewart Jr.
Arihara was SoftBank's most consistent starter this season with a 14-7 record, 137 strikeouts and stellar 2.36 ERA.
Moinelo made a successful conversion to starter from the bullpen and compiled an 11-5 record with 155 strikeouts and a Pacific League-leading 1.88 ERA.
Stewart had a breakout season going 9-4 with 105 strikeouts and a 1.95 ERA.
Arihara, Moinelo and Stewart all won their games in the sweep of Nipponham in the Climax Series and should be the first three starting pitchers in the Japan Series.
Veteran Tsuyoshi Wada has proven to be a solid middle reliever and former major leaguer Roberto Osuna has been a reliable closer for Kokubo.
The Skinny: Both pitching staffs are solid and have performed well in the postseason, but the advantage goes to SoftBank.
Yokohama Hitting
The big three for Yokohama are infielders Tyler Austin, Shugo Maki and Toshiro Miyazaki. But Yasutaka Tobashira and Keita Sano aren't far behind.
Austin led the Central League with a .316 batting average this season. The former major leaguer also had 25 homers and 69 RBIs.
He hit a clutch solo home run against the Giants in a 2-1 win on October 18 a day after connecting for a solo shot in a 2-1 win.
Maki is the captain of the team and has consistently come through in big situations. He hit the clutch ninth-inning single in the final game of the Giants series that lifted his team to a 3-2 win and into the Japan Series.
Catcher Tobashira has been what the Japanese announcers like to call "lucky boy." He was named series MVP after hitting .346 with one home run and six RBIs against the Giants.
SoftBank Hitting
Slugger Hotaka Yamakawa is the centerpiece of a SoftBank batting order that will give any starting pitcher nightmares. The former Saitama Seibu Lions player came over to the Hawks this season and led the league in homers (34) and RBIs (99).
SoftBank's Kensuke Kondoh led the league with a .314 batting average while Ryoya Kurihara has had a spectacular bounce-back season with 20 homers, 87 RBIs and a .273 batting average.
For speed on the base paths, the Hawks can turn to Ukyo Shuto, who swiped 41 bases this season and had a .323 OBP.
At 36, veteran Yuki Yanagita is not the player he once was but he still can put up decent numbers. He was limited to only 52 games this season due to injury but managed to bat .286 with 35 RBIs.
The Skinny: Both lineups are powerful and deep but give the slight advantage to Yokohama, which seems to have caught fire in the postseason.
Who's Going to Win the Japan Series?
The final analysis: SoftBank has the edge in experience although only a handful of players remain from their powerhouse years. But the fact that the Hawks dominated in the regular season with the best record gives them the edge.
Prediction: SoftBank in seven.
RELATED:
- BayStars Defeat Giants in CLCS Final Stage and Will Face Hawks in Japan Series
- Nipponham Fighters Rally Past Lotte Marines and Advance to Final Stage of PL Climax Series
- SoftBank Hawks Return to Top of Pacific League with Eye on Japan Series Crown
Author: Jim Armstrong
The author is a longtime journalist who has covered sports in Japan for over 25 years. You can find his articles on SportsLook.
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