Happy New Year to JAPAN Forward and SportsLook readers. We are pleased to bring you "Predictions 2025," a special New Year's series sharing the foresight and expectations of selected contributors for the coming year in their fields of specialty, continuing with Colin Morrison's forecast for various sports.
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GLASGOW — Happy New Year from Scotland! The calendar has turned, and this week presents the perfect opportunity to have a bit of fun while attempting to predict what the coming 12 months may have in store in the sporting arena.
Since I began writing for JAPAN Forward and SportsLook in July 2022, it has been my privilege to present an international perspective on Japan's performances on the global soccer and rugby fields as well as analyzing some high-level boxing matches involving Japanese fighters.
Continuing in that vein, this article attempts to forecast how 2025 will play out for Japanese teams. We also take a close look at some individual athletes in these sports. Some of the predictions may well be laced with sarcasm ― after all, there will be plenty of time for serious articles as the year goes on.
For now, settle in and enjoy something more informal. Read all the way to the end for a bonus prediction that golf fans may appreciate.
Soccer: Samurai Blue Waltzing Toward the 2026 World Cup
With the 2026 FIFA World Cup fast approaching, Hajime Moriyasu's Japan squad is cruising toward qualifying for the tournament.
Unbeaten, with five wins and a draw so far in Group C of the Asian Football Confederation's final qualifying round, Japan can start planning where to base itself for the United States / Canada / Mexico co-hosted tournament in the summer of 2026.
On paper, the section including Australia, Saudi Arabia and China, looked potentially challenging before the fixtures began in September 2024. Japan has shown its strength, however, leaving the competition trailing, while scoring 22 goals and only conceding two in the process.
The campaign will conclude with fixtures in March and June. Japan only needs another four points to confirm its place at FIFA's showpiece event. Easy!
Limited Room on Calendar to Play Non-Asian Opponents
Japan has shown it is an Asian soccer power. 2026 will be the eighth consecutive FIFA World Cup it has qualified for. That is a great achievement. Improving upon making it into the last 16, which Japan has done at four World Cups, including the 2018 and 2022 editions, has to be the aim for the current squad.
It would help if there were more opportunities for Japan to face European or South American opponents on a more regular basis. The best way to improve is to test yourself against better opposition.
And the June 2025 international window would be ideal for this. Many European nations, including Scotland, have availability before commencing the European qualifying for WC 2026 in September.
Unfortunately, Japan will be concluding its own campaign against Australia and Indonesia in that period. For Japan, those matches will be largely meaningless as qualification will be secured.
I predict that the Japan Football Association will petition FIFA to play its Under-23 squad in the final two AFC qualifiers while taking its first team to Europe to play higher-level opposition. OK, this can't happen, but it would be better if it was possible.
What will be possible will be fixtures against opposition from other confederations in September, October and November. Facing off against the strongest teams possible would be beneficial to Samurai Blue at this stage.
Some Individual Player Predictions for 2025
With almost all of Samurai Blue's players competing in European leagues, here are some quick predictions on three who may be moving on in the months to come.
Zion Suzuki (Goalkeeper, Parma)
Despite only joining the Serie A newcomer in the summer of 2024, Zion Suzuki has caught the eye with very capable performances so far in Italy's top flight. In a league known for plenty of internal transfer activity, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Suzuki may be targeted by one of Italy's larger clubs.
With traditional big hitters Juventus, AC Milan and Inter Milan all operating with veteran goalkeepers this season, they may be in the market for a younger man to wear the gloves in the seasons to come.
Koki Ogawa (Striker, NEC Nijmegen)
Koki Ogawa, with six goals in 16 appearances so far for struggling NEC, might be seen as an affordable striking option by some of the bigger Dutch clubs. A positive second half of the season in the Netherlands could see Ogawa's name linked to talk around Europe.
Nine goals in nine appearances for Samurai Blue shows that Ogawa is currently a vital member of the national squad.
Reo Hatate (Midfielder, Celtic FC)
Now in his third season with the Scottish Premiership giant, Reo Hatate is having a somewhat inconsistent season. The occasional outstanding showing aside, Hatate has been mediocre at best this season in Scotland.
With his contract due to expire in the summer of 2026, perhaps this coming summer will see Celtic and Hatate part ways. The player could benefit from a new challenge and Celtic would be happy to bank a fair transfer fee to release him.
Rugby Union: Brave Blossoms are Eddie Jones' Latest Project
Full disclosure: I'm not a fan of Eddie Jones. The veteran coach, who returned to the helm of Japan's men's national team in January 2024, has been entrusted by the Japan Rugby Football Union (JRFU) to build a squad capable of competing at the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
One year into that process, Jones' plan is still in its early stages. A reasonably successful Pacific Nations Cup campaign was followed by a confidence-sapping European tour at the end of 2024.
Jones needs time to implement his plan for the team. But, bearing in mind he recently walked away from a similar assignment with Australia early into his agreement with them, who's to say he won't do the same to Japan if the mood takes him?
With an inexperienced and physically overmatched forward pack being given time to develop under Jones, the players may benefit later from the punishing defeats experienced in the autumn of 2024.
Again though, will Jones stick around to see his work through? Will the confidence of the players be dented beyond repair if 2025 serves up another campaign punctuated by heavy defeats against the big rugby nations?
Autumn Tour Looked Disorganized and Chaotic
It's a delicate balancing act for Jones to pull off. He needs the players to completely buy into what he is trying to do. Some of Jones' autumn team selections were baffling, especially in the backs, where many players were picked to play unfamiliar positions. Is Jones putting square pegs in round holes and hoping to strike gold?
Jones also needs to ensure his team doesn't turn into a poorly disciplined unit. Conceding excessive penalties in rugby kills any hopes of winning. We have seen this from his teams in the past, especially England, when the coach had clearly lost the confidence of his players toward the end of his tenure there.
2025 should see Japan look to win the Pacific Nations Cup and improve greatly in summer and autumn tests against the big fish from both hemispheres. Will this happen? Under Jones, I wouldn't be too confident. Sorry.
Boxing: Bantamweight Aces Will Continue to Thrill
With all four world titles at bantamweight held by Japanese boxers, the 118-pound division currently belongs to Japan.
Ryosuke Nishida (10-0, two KOs), Junto Nakatani (29-0, 22 KOs), Seiya Tsutsumi (12-0-2, eight KOs) and Yoshiki Takei (10-0, eight KOs) are the men in possession of the hardware.
This, more than likely will lead to unification bouts between the compatriots. I say this, as an outsider looking in, Japanese boxing seems to be able to make the best fights on a more regular basis than happens in other parts of the world. Unification fights and perhaps an undisputed bantamweight champion could be on the cards in 2025.
That man should be Nakatani as he looks to be the cream of the crop at 118 pounds and has been heavily linked to a super fight against super bantamweight king Naoya Inoue (28-0, 25 KOs).
The Monster Will Continue to Dominate in 2025
Speaking of Inoue, the undisputed super bantamweight champion has an upcoming fight in Tokyo on January 24 against Sam Goodman (19-0, eight KOs) ― with coverage coming on SportsLook ― which he will win in impressive fashion.
Once that is over, hopefully, Inoue will have an opportunity to face Murodjon Akhmadaliev (13-1, 10 KOs) ― the one remaining foe at 122 pounds considered a danger to the Monster's hold on the titles ― before maybe moving up to featherweight or facing Nakatani before 2025 is over.
This may be Inoue's final year of fighting regularly. His run of 24 world title fights (including Goodman) is remarkable. It will take its toll at some point.
Just as Inoue won't go on forever, neither will this current golden era of Japanese boxing ― but both Inoue and Japanese boxing in general will enjoy a strong 2025. Savor it!
Finally … A Golf Prediction
Hideki Matsuyama is off to a great start in 2025. His triumph in the PGA Tour's season-opening event, The Sentry, with a 72-hole tour record of 35-under 257 on January 5, provides ample evidence that he's primed for more success.
He will contend for a major title in 2025. It will more than likely be at the Masters ― a title he won in 2021.
After dealing with injuries in 2022 and 2023, Matsuyama won twice on the PGA Tour in 2024. I wasn't going to go so far as to say he will win a major this year, but what the heck? Hideki Matsuyama will be wearing his second green jacket at Augusta this April. Book it!
RELATED:
- Read other predictions from our series, Predictions 2025
- OBITUARY | Hiroshi Kagawa (1924-2024), the World's Oldest Soccer Journalist
- Japan Experiencing a Tough Autumn on the Rugby Field
- Junto Nakatani Puts on Monday Masterclass in Latest Title Defense
- [JAPAN SPORTS NOTEBOOK] Naoya Inoue Title Fight Postponed Until January 24
Author: Colin Morrison
Morrison is a freelance sportswriter. Find his stories on SportsLook. Writing since 2016, his byline currently appears on FightsATW.com where he covers boxing. Morrison has previously written for NYFights.com and spitballingpod.com. His main areas of interest are boxing, soccer, golf and rugby union. Morrison is from Scotland and can be found on X (formerly Twitter) @Morrie1981.
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