Rugby
Rugby World Cup: Pool Stage Review and Knockout Stage Predictions
After five weeks of action, the Rugby World Cup pool stage has wrapped up. Read on for a look back at the opening stage and predictions for upcoming matches.
GLASGOW ― At times it felt long and drawn out. In other moments it felt like the pool stage at the 2023 Rugby World Cup was whizzing by.
Twenty teams entered the tournament, which kicked off in Paris, with France taking on New Zealand on September 8.
Portugal's staggering upset win over Fiji on October 8 brought the first round to a close. Eight teams remain in contention to lift the Webb Ellis Cup on October 28.
The head-to-head matches that are to come will serve up some titanic tussles. Correctly predicting the outcome of the majority of them won't be easy, but I will give it a shot in the final section of this article.
Before that, a quick review of the past five weeks of action. Who has lived up to expectations? Whose tournament was an unmitigated disaster?
Rugby World Cup: Pool Stage Review
Pool A
As expected, France and New Zealand advanced from this pool. France defeated the Kiwis 27-13 on opening night before both teams saw off the challenges of the other teams without too much drama.
Italy, a team who had improved greatly over the past two seasons in the Six Nations, suffered two humbling defeats against New Zealand and France. New Zealand demolished it 96-17 while the French punished it to the tune of 60-7.
Uruguay showed signs of its potential. It needs more fixtures against top class opposition to improve, althought its win over Namibia was an exciting contest full of momentum swings.
Namibia had a tough time. It lost heavily to Italy, New Zealand, and France. By the time it played Uruguay, it was playing its fourth match in 18 days. The schedule was not kind to the Namibians.
Pool B
Top-ranked Ireland defeated both South Africa and Scotland to top the table.
Second-ranked South Africa recorded a victory over Scotland that left the Scots outside the qualification places.
Ireland and South Africa played out an epic struggle in Paris on September 23, Ireland won it 13-8.
Tonga played well in patches of matches against the big three in this group but it really needs more exposure to top level competition. The same goes for just about all the so-called Tier 2 nations in rugby. World Rugby needs to do something to help these nations.
Romania was cannon fodder for the other teams. It was defeated by large scores in all four of its matches. The Romanians shipped 287 points while only scoring 32 in four fixtures.
Pool C
This pool featured two rebuilding powers in Wales and Australia, along with Fiji and Georgia ― all four nations were aiming for the quarterfinals when the tournament began.
Portugal making its second World Cup appearance acquitted itself very well. Playing an easy-on-the-eye style of rugby, it managed to hold Georgia to a draw and defeat Fiji. It lost to Wales and Australia but played well in those matches.
Wales, under experienced coach Warren Gatland, played effective rugby and won the group with a 100% record.
Fiji followed Wales into the knockout stage by beating Australia 22-15 on September 17, its first win over the Wallabies since 1954. Only scraping past Georgia and losing to Portugal in its final two group games will be a concern for Fiji coach Simon Raiwalui, though.
Australia had, to put it mildly, a shocking time in France. Polarizing head coach Eddie Jones' squad was on the receiving end of painful losses to Fiji and Wales in France. The Wallabies were eliminated from a World Cup at the pool stage for the first time in history.
Pool D
Tournament debutant Chile played with a fiery passion and quite a bit of skill. Although it went winless, Chile will hopefully continue to develop during the next four-year cycle.
Samoa gave eventual group winner England a fright before losing by one point (18-17) on October 7. It also lost to Argentina and Japan in a campaign that will be remembered as a disappointing one from a Samoan perspective.
Japan narrowly missed out on a quarterfinal berth. The Brave Blossoms lost a deciding fixture to Argentina on October 8. Instead of heading to Marseille to take on Wales on October 15, departing coach Jamie Joseph's squad made the long flight home.
Argentina started slowly but seemed to have found its game by the end of the pool stage. Which version of the Pumas will show up in the quarterfinal?
England, under pressure before the tournament started, won the pool by playing a kicking based brand of rugby. It was effective if not overly entertaining or pretty to watch. If it has any desire to lift the trophy, England will need to offer more as the tournament progresses.
These matchups are set based on the final group standings. The pathway to the final is now known so it's time to plot a course through the remainder of the competition.
Rugby World Cup Quarterfinal Predictions
These predictions are tough. The four quarterfinals all look to be competitive matchups.
Further down the line, any potential injuries or suspensions for the semifinals and final are unknown at this stage ― so those predictions will be made based on what has been observed so far.
Wales vs Argentina - Stade de Marseille, Marseille (October 15, 12 AM JST)
As mentioned, Wales has been effective while Argentina started slowly before it found form against Chile and Japan.
At the time of writing, Wales has injury worries over key players Gareth Anscombe and Liam Williams. Taulupe Faletau is out for the remainder of the tournament with a broken arm. He will be missed by Wales.
Wales has improved dramatically since its dire Six Nations campaign in the autumn. Coach Gatland now has his team fitter and looking able of playing above its capabilities.
Argentina is always a tough team to predict. It is one of the world's best teams on a good day. On a bad day, its players look like they have never met one another before.
With wingers Emiliano Boffelli and Mateo Carreras seeing more of the ball and the forward pack looking more cohesive and disciplined the Pumas could be peaking at the right time.
That being said, I can't ignore Argentina's habit of coming up with horrendous errors when the heat is really on. They have also had one day less to recover and prepare for this quarterfinal. That could be key.
Wales is more reliable in the big moments.
Prediction: Wales to win narrowly.
Ireland vs New Zealand - Stade de France, Paris (October 15, 4 AM JST)
This should be good. Ireland is on a 17-match winning run. Its wins over South Africa and Scotland at Stade de France show it is comfortable playing at the venue.
Since losing to France, New Zealand has played free-flowing rugby, scoring 36 tries in the process. The All Blacks look irresistible when playing in that fashion.
Problem number one for New Zealand ― playing that way against Ireland is very difficult.
And problem number two ― Ireland just has too much momentum right now.
Since being defeated 46-14 by New Zealand at this stage of the 2019 World Cup, Ireland has won three out of four test matches against the Southern Hemisphere giant.
Ireland is also looking to advance beyond the World Cup quarterfinal stage for the first time in its history.
While New Zealand's backs are a match for any opponent, its forward pack will struggle to achieve parity against Ireland's fearsome unit.
This will be where the game will be decided.
Prediction: Ireland by 10 points.
England vs Fiji - Stade de Marseille, Marseille (October 16, 12 AM JST)
This is a rematch of a World Cup warm-up fixture that Fiji won at England's home of Twickenham on August 26.
The Flying Fijians triumphed 30-22 that day. Can it repeat the trick in Marseille?
It could, but it looks more likely that England will find a way to win.
Despite its issues coming into the World Cup, England has played a conservative style of rugby, which has suited it well.
This, coupled with Fiji's dramatic fall in performance level against Georgia and Portugal, leads me to think that England will advance here.
Prediction: England by 12.
France vs South Africa - Stade de France, Paris (October 16, 4 AM JST)
This will be a blockbuster. Hosts against holders.
France has influential scrum-half and captain Antoine Dupoint back in training after a facial fracture sustained against Namibia on September 21.
Wing Damian Penaud is enjoying a fine tournament, crossing for six tries so far.
South Africa is an unmatched physical presence so opponents need to find another way to get the better of it.
France is good enough to do this, but it can't afford to fall behind. Otherwise, South Africa may be able to strangle the life out of the game.
A really close call, but I believe France prevails here.
Prediction: France by five points.
Hypothetical Semifinal Predictions
The above predictions would see the following semifinals:
Wales vs Ireland - Stade de France, Paris (October 21, 4 AM JST)
The unbalanced draw of having the strongest teams in pools A and B and weaker ones in C and D presents us with the possibility of two one-sided semifinals.
Ireland is a much better team than Wales at this moment in time. A Parisian stroll for the Irish.
Prediction: Ireland by plenty.
England vs France - Stade de France, Paris (October 22, 4 AM JST)
As above, this would feature one team that is far stronger than the other right now.
England could maybe make it an arm-wrestle for a while, but France eventually gets on top and runs away with it.
Prediction: France by 20+ points.
Hypothetical World Cup Final Prediction
If we end up with this matchup then it could come down to the finest of margins…
Ireland vs France - Stade de France, Paris (October 29, 4 AM JST)
Find a coin, allocate one team heads and one team tails and flip the coin. Make your decision based on the outcome.
Only joking. Despite playing in France, Ireland has the capabilities to defeat the home team and win the World Cup for the first time in its history.
Prediction: Ireland by three points or less.
Let's see how many of these fun predictions come to fruition. Enjoy the rest of the tournament and bookmark SportsLook for a match report on the final.
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Author: Colin Morrison
Morrison is a freelance sportswriter. Find his stories on SportsLook. Writing since 2016, Morrison's byline also appears on boxing website NYFights.com and multi-sports platform Spitballingpod.com. His main areas of interest are boxing, soccer, golf and rugby union. Morrison is from Scotland and can be found on X (formerly Twitter) @Morrie1981.