ODDS and EVENS | Chasing Victory in the 151st Kentucky Derby

In 2015, American Pharoah ended a decades-long drought, becoming the first winner of the American Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. It all started with his one-length victory in the Kentucky Derby on May 2.

Now, 10 years later, American Pharoah-sired Luxor Cafe, who was foaled in Kentucky and developed in Japan, will race in the 151st Kentucky Derby. The first leg of the Triple Crown is on Saturday evening, May 3 (Sunday morning at 7:57 AM JST) at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

A field of 20 horses was announced earlier in the week. Rodriguez, one of six-time winning trainer Bob Baffert's entrants, was scratched, and Baeza filled the vacant spot. On Friday, Grande was also forced to pull out due to a foot injury, reducing the field to 19.

Luxor Cafe brings a steady flow of success to Derby Day, carrying a four-race win streak dating back to 2024. This year, the 3-year-old colt has triumphed in the Kurochiku Sho (January 11, Nakayama Racecourse), the Hyacinth Stakes (February 23, Tokyo Racecourse) and the Fukuryu Stakes (March 29, Nakayama).

Brazilian jockey Joao Moreira, who will sit aboard Luxor Cafe, rode him for the first time in the horse's latest race.

What was Moreira's impression of Luxor Cafe after they teamed up for a five-length victory?

"I thought he was going to win, but he kind of won so much more impressively than I thought," Moreira said, according to the Louisville Courier Journal. "Obviously, the field wasn't as strong as the race he'll be running on Saturday. But he's done what a good horse does."

Veteran Japanese trainer Noriyuki Hori and owner Koichi Nishikawa have supervised Luxor Cafe's rise from foal to Kentucky Derby entrant.

Favored to Win the Kentucky Derby

Trainer Michael McCarthy's Journalism, Italian jockey Umberto Rispoli's ride, was listed as the 3-1 morning-line favorite on Friday to win the Derby. Journalism was assigned the No 8 post. Updated odds listed him as the 7-2 favorite later in the day.

Journalism arrived in Louisville with three wins in a row, including, most recently, in the G2 San Felipe Stakes by 1¾ lengths on March 1 at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California.

The possibility of a victory at Churchill Downs would be the ultimate thrill, according to Journalism co-owner Aron Wellman.

"It gives me chills," Wellman told The Athletic. "There is so much emotion with this race. Nothing compares to the Kentucky Derby. It transcends the sport."

Representing Japan at the Kentucky Derby

Luxor Cafe, a 13-1 longshot, has the No 7 post position. To Luxor Cafe's left in the starting gate, the No 6 slot, will be Japan-bred 38-1 longshot Admire Daytona, piloted by Christophe Lemaire.

Moreira, 41, is making his Kentucky Derby debut.

Saturday's Derby will be Lemaire's third.

"It's such an exciting race, such an exciting event that I couldn't miss the opportunity to ride Admire Daytona," Lemaire said in a video interview after arriving in Louisville.

As a 42-year-old, he made his debut in the most famous horse race in America in 2022 aboard Crown Pride, finishing 13th. A year later, Lemaire guided Derma Sotogake to a sixth-place finish.

To qualify for the Kentucky Derby, Lemaire and Admire Daytona competed in the G2 UAE Derby, contested over 1,900 meters, in Dubai on April 5. Admire Daytona triumphed by a nose to secure a berth in the American Triple Crown opener. It was the longest race of Admire Daytona's career (two wins and two runner-up finishes in six races); the previous five were all 1,600-meter events. The Kentucky Derby covers 2,012 meters.

Impressions of Admire Daytona

Lemaire has ridden Admire Daytona in four races, giving him ample knowledge of the horse's strengths and riding traits.

"He's shown a lot of class, a lot of potential," Lemaire said in the interview posted on TwinSpires' YouTube channel. "When he got beat in Tokyo by Luxor Cafe [in November 2024], it was just by a nose. But both horses were very brave and we broke the track record on that occasion in a maiden race. So it shows that both horses are really good."

For Admire Daytona's owner, Junko Kondo, and trainer, Yukihiro Kato, this'll be their first Kentucky Derby.

Fulfilling a Dream

As noted earlier, Moreira is also making his first appearance in the American Triple Crown opener.

It's a big deal for him, another milestone in a career that has taken him from Brazil to Asia, where he established himself as a prolific winner in Singapore and Hong Kong. Moreira has also had noteworthy success of late in Japan, winning three Grade 1 races at three different racetracks in 2025: Takamatsunomiya Kinen (March 30), Oka Sho (April 13) and Satsuki Sho (April 20).

In an interview with the Louisville Courier Journal, Moreira summed up this weekend's opportunity by saying, "It's like a dream coming true."

American trainer Wesley Ward has kept a close eye on Moreira's racing career for more than a decade. In fact, Ward invited him to train in the United States in 2013. But at that time the Brazilian opted to move from Singapore to Hong Kong, the racing website Idol Horse reported in April 2025.

More than a decade later, Ward remains in awe of Moreira's skills as a thoroughbred rider.

"I don't know if it was or wasn't the right decision [for him to move to Hong Kong], because at that time he was going to do great anywhere he went, whether that was Australia or England, or anywhere," Ward said, according to a Moreira profile published by Idol Horse. "He was just a tremendously talented guy and whatever a horse would run on a daily basis, you put him on and they'd run faster, for whatever reason that is."

Ward added, "He caught my eye, the way he finished on a horse and the way he rode the races, he was certainly an exceptional talent."

Can Luxor Cafe Win the Kentucky Derby?

The 2025 Kentucky Derby field will include four previous race winners: Javier Castellano, Flavien Prat, Joel Rosario and Brian Hernandez Jr, who guided Mystik Dan to victory in 2024.

There are, of course, no guarantees that Moreira will emerge victorious in the 151st Kentucky Derby. Numerous factors could determine the outcome of the race.

Moreira does, however, believe that Luxor Cafe can win it.

"He has a chance and deserves some respect," Moreira told Idol Horse.

"Japanese horses are doing so well around the world and I am getting on board a horse that has done everything to make me believe that he can compete well there." 

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Author: Ed Odeven

Find Ed on JAPAN Forward's dedicated website, SportsLook. Follow his [Japan Sports Notebook] on Sundays, [Odds and Evens] during the week, and X (formerly Twitter) ＠ed_odeven.