[SPONSORED] This paper does not intend to argue that eating whales will solve the problem of food security. Even among the regions and countries that accept whales as a food resource, the degree of dependence on whales as a food source varies and there are many possible scenarios for the future of whale diets.
First of three parts
To argue the relationship with food security based on the assumption of a uniform whale diet is an oversimplification. It cannot be expected to capture the essence of the problem.
Whales are often treated as a symbol of environmental protection. However, when we consider the whale-eating issue, it encompasses a variety of issues surrounding food security. Rather, it is important to see and think of whales as a symbol of food security issues.
The World’s Fragile Food Security
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought attention to the fragility of the world’s food security system, as grain exports from Ukraine have been stalled. As one of the world’s top five major grain exporters of wheat and barley, exports from Ukraine have supported the grain demand of countries around the world, including many developing countries.
The impact of the sudden suspension of these exports is shocking. In addition, there are many other concerns about food security issues, such as droughts, floods, heat waves, and cold waves caused by climate change. These, too, will negatively impact regional and global food production.
In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has stalled the import, export, and distribution of food on a global scale. The energy crisis has also contributed to high food prices.
As a result, food security has rapidly become an issue that has attracted international attention and discussion in recent years. Experts and intellectuals have long been aware of the various problems of food security and have sounded the alarm. However, a sense of crisis has finally come to be widely shared. A statement on food security was adopted at the G7 meeting in June 2024. Also, food security and food crises were discussed at the World Economic Forum in Davos in May.
Food Security and Whales
So what are the specific issues of food security? How do they relate to whales?
Let us take an overview of the current global food situation.
Food security is by no means a problem limited to developing countries or the poor. Even Japan, which on the surface appears to have an abundance of food, is in a serious situation. Many countries in the world, including Japan, depend on foreign imports for their food supply.
Among the world’s 200-odd countries, only about 20% are self-sufficient in grains, the main foodstuff. Even fewer export food consistently and in substantial quantities.
In addition, the majority of the world’s food production is consumed at home domestically. For example, in the case of rice, more than 90% of the total production is consumed in the home country. Only 10% or so of rice is sold on the international market. Under these circumstances, the current global food security upheaval and crisis was caused as the result of stagnant exports from the few countries with export potential, such as Ukraine and Russia.
Risks in Relying on Few Exporters,
International conflicts are not the only cause of food export delays from exporting countries. When floods, droughts, and other natural disasters occur in food-exporting countries, food self-sufficiency is quickly strained and prices soar. With climate change advancing, such events are likely to occur more frequently in the future.
Assuming no international conflicts or natural disasters, can the world continue to rely on these few food-exporting countries? In fact, the production capacity of food-exporting countries is reaching critical limits even in the absence of international conflicts or natural disasters.
Until now, the world has responded to the rapid population growth by increasing agricultural production in the same rapid way. However, the amount of farmland has remained mostly unchanged during this period. Increased production has been made possible by increasing unit yields through massive amounts of fertilizers and pesticides and technological innovations.
The rate at which new farmland is being created by clearing forests and other areas is almost balanced by the rate at which farmland is decreasing. Causes of loss include those due to salt damage, deterioration of soil fertility, a decrease in the number of farmers due to various causes, the conversion of farmland to residential land due to urbanization, civil wars, and other conflicts, etc. As a result, there has been no increase in farmland.
The number of suitable areas where new farmland can be developed in the future will be further restricted. We can only hope for a further increase in yield, but there will naturally be limits to what can be achieved.
Limited Global Water Resources
In addition to farmland, water is an essential resource for agricultural production. In Japan, where water is plentiful, this may not seem to be a real issue. However, the tightness of water resources is a global problem and international conflicts over water are also occurring.
The United States, which is known as the world’s “food bank” and is engaged in large-scale agriculture with extremely high productivity, is also facing a water resource crisis. The Midwest, a major agricultural region in the US known as the Corn Belt, is not a region of high precipitation. Rather, it is an arid region.
Large-scale agricultural production there has been supported by irrigation using groundwater pumped up from the ground. The groundwater is called the Ogallala Aquifer. Also called fossil water, it is a huge amount of water accumulated since ancient times.
Unlike ordinary groundwater, which comes up after use, this fossil water diminishes as it is used. Moreover, its renewal takes many years of geological time. This water in the Ogallala Reservoir, which is the lifeline of US agriculture, is rapidly declining and becoming depleted.
Can US agriculture survive as it does today? It is estimated that this fossil water will be depleted between 2050 and 2070. Even if US agriculture can be sustained until that time, it seems inevitable that costs will increase and food prices will skyrocket in the process.
Next in part two: Getting to Food Security with More Variety in Food Sources
This article is published in cooperation with the Institute of Cetacean Research in Japan. Let us hear your thoughts in our comments section.
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(Read the article in Japanese.)
Author: Joji Morishita, PhD
Former Professor, Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology