[ODDS and EVENS] Expect a Plethora of Olympic Medals for Japan in Paris

How many Olympic medals will Japan capture at the 2024 Paris Games?

It is a compelling topic, and you can have a variety of discussions about it, analyzing it from any number of different angles.

But let's start with this: Will Japanese Olympians come close to matching their outstanding medal count from the 2020 Tokyo Olympics on home soil? Can the Hinomaru increase their medal total? Or will there be a slight drop (or a significant drop) in the total number of medals?

I believe there won't be a huge drop in the medal count. But it's definitely possible that the host-nation advantage was a significant factor for Japan en route to 27 gold, 14 silver and 17 bronze medals ― a national record of 58 total medals ― at the pandemic-delayed Olympic Games in 2021.

Let's also remember that baseball and softball were reinstituted for the 2020 Games after being scrapped from the Olympic program following the conclusion of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Japan won the gold in baseball and softball, thrilling millions of fans in their homeland.

OK, so maybe without baseball and softball 20-25 gold medals is a good place to start for a prediction.

The JOC is Officially Targeting 20 Gold Medals

Mitsugi Ogata, the Japanese Olympic Committee's secretary general, has issued a 20-gold medal target for the nation's athletes.

"The most important thing is to convey the value of sports that cannot just be measured by the number of medals, but the athletes need to perform for people to cheer them on," Ogata was quoted as saying by Kyodo News on June 26. "If the athletes compete well, the target can be reached."

Japan is set to dispatch more than 400 athletes to Paris, its largest contingent for an overseas Olympic Games and far succeeding the 339 who participated at the 2008 Beijing Games.

Japan Will Shine in Its Best Olympic Sports

Three years after staging the Tokyo Games without fans in the stands for nearly every event, replicating across-the-board numbers in each sport is not going to happen for Japan in France.

But you can expect Japan to come close to achieving comprehensive success in judo, wrestling, skateboarding, gymnastics and other sports (more details below).

Of the aforementioned 27 gold medals collected at Tokyo 2020, judo (nine), wrestling (five), skateboarding (three) and gymnastics (two) combined for 19 first-place finishes.

It would shock nobody if judo once again became the top sport on Japan's medal table in France. Using only the previous three Summer Olympics (Rio 2016, London 2012 and Beijing 2008) before Tokyo 2020 for context, Japan's judo delegation averaged 7.66 medals per Olympics.

What's more, judo ranks second on Japan's all-time medal count (96) for a summer sport, with its 48 gold won by Japanese judoka far exceeding No 2 on the sport list for Olympic titles.

Gymnastics tops the overall list with 103 medals and sits in third with 33 gold. Wrestling is No 2 with 37 gold and third on the total medal chart with 76.

And you can't overlook swimming. Japan has amassed 83 swimming medals, including 24 gold, since its first Olympic appearance in 1912.

Judo Siblings Provide a Motivational Spark for the Team

Without a doubt, one of the most dramatic storylines of the Tokyo Olympics was the electric spectacle of Hifumi Abe and his younger sister Uta both winning gold medals on the same day, July 25, 2021, at Nippon Budokan.

Both rooted for one another and shared the joyful experience together as the host nation cheered with delight. The effervescent Uta, now 23, was the first sibling to claim gold on that glorious day.

Three years later, Hifumi Abe, 26, is the two-time defending world champion in the same weight class (66-kg division), while Uta Abe also claimed world titles in the women's 52-kg division in 2022 and '23.

Japan's exceptional depth among its judoka should produce similar results in Paris.

Success at the 2023 World Wrestling Championships Triggers High Expectations for Paris

In September 2023, Team Japan left Belgrade as the most successful of all nations competing at the World Wrestling Championships. This was made possible by Japan's dynamic female wrestling corps, which won six of 10 freestyle divisions in the Serbian capital.

Based on its track record of success, I expect Japan to earn at least 6-10 wrestling medals, with 50% or more being for titles, in Paris.

First and foremost, keep an eye on global superstar and defending Olympic gold medalist Yui Susaki, a four-time world champion (thrice at her current weight category, 50 kg) and her teammate Akari Fujinami, a 53-kg division participant who owns a 133-match winning streak.

In an interview with Nikkan Gendai, Susaki, 25, outlined her goals for the 2024 Paris Games and beyond.

"My big dream is to win gold medals in Tokyo, Paris, Los Angeles, and the next Olympics (2032 in Brisbane, Australia)," Susaki told the newspaper. If she's able to accomplish that extraordinary feat, she'd become the second female Olympian to win four consecutive gold medals in the same sport.

Who was the first?

Retired Japanese wrestler Kaori Icho.

Japanese Skateboarders Continue to Excel in Major Events

At the final Olympic Qualifying Series event in Budapest, Japan showcased its rich talent in the street skateboarding competitions on June 23.

Defending men's Olympic champ Yuto Horigome won the event, followed by compatriots Ginwoo Onodera, 14, and Sora Shirai.

And how did the Japanese women do in their street skateboarding competition? Another 1-2-3 finish ― and as longtime former New York Yankees announcer Phil Rizzuto would proclaim after a big play during a baseball game, "Holy cow!" The medalists: Coco Yoshizawa (gold), Yumeka Oda (silver) and Funa Nakayama (bronze).

Japan is also a major force in park skateboarding events. Multiple medals should be brought back to Japan from the French capital.

Volleyball Teams on the Rise

In the run-up to the Paris Games, Japan was the runner-up in the Women's Volleyball Nations League for the first time on June 23 in Bangkok. The Japan men's team did the same thing, placing second behind reigning Olympic champ France in the VNL title match in Lodz, Poland, on June 30.

Both teams have made key improvements over the past couple of years, developing into more cohesive, well-rounded units. Expect Japan's women's and men's teams to contend for medals. Women's captain Sarina Koga and men's captain Yuki Ishikawa are well-established international stars.

Of all the team sports on the menu for the Paris Games, volleyball is certainly among the top three or four sports on the want-to-watch list for folks in Japan.

Gymnastics Star Hashimoto Looks to Repeat as All-Around Champ

Daiki Hashimoto followed two-time men's all-around gold medalist Kohei Uchimura (2012, 2016) as the champion at Tokyo 2020.

Based on his well-documented ability to execute highly technical maneuvers, Hashimoto looks poised to be in the mix for another title this summer. The run-up to Paris, however, has created plenty of stress for Hashimoto and the Japan national team's coaching staff.

A middle finger injury sustained in May has impacted his workouts. Strong grips are important in holding onto various apparatus.

Japan men's national team head coach Hisashi Mizutori addressed the issue while speaking to reporters during a training session on July 2 in Tokyo.

"Hashimoto hasn't been able to practice enough on some of the apparatus, but he is recovering well," Mizutori said, according to Kyodo News.

A healthy Hashimoto is essential for Japan to have a shot at contending for a medal in the men's team competition.

Javelin Thrower Kitaguchi Becomes a Top Star

By winning her first world title in August 2023, javelin thrower Haruka Kitaguchi has ascended to the top of her chosen sport.

In 2024, Kitaguchi is better than ever. The 26-year-old has recorded five victories in six competitions, and the other finish was runner-up.

A world title in Budapest, followed by an Olympic title in Paris appears to be a likely possibility for Kitaguchi, a great ambassador for the sport in her home country. 

Expect Japan to Vie for Olympic Medals in a Slew of Sports

Japan collected at least one gold medal on 12 of the 16 days during the Tokyo Olympics.

The host nation's Olympians also hauled in at least one medal in 20 different sports: judo, wrestling, skateboarding, gymnastics, swimming, table tennis, karate, boxing, baseball, fencing, softball, athletics (track and field), sport climbing, surfing, basketball, cycling, golf, archery, badminton and weightlifting.

What a grand variety!

Can the Japan women's basketball team perform at a high level again? Collecting silver at Tokyo 2020 was its greatest feat to date.

With upsets and surprises a big part of the narrative at each Olympics, there should be a huge representation of Japanese athletes from different sports collecting medals in France ― and maybe halfway around the world, too. Surfing will be contested in Tahiti. For the men's team, reigning silver medalist Kanoa Igarashi, Connor O'Leary and Reo Inaba have qualified, and Shino Matsuda will represent Japan on the women's side.

Like baseball and softball, karate is not a part of Paris 2024, but breaking (breakdancing) makes its Olympic debut this summer. And like skateboarding three years ago, Japanese up-and-comers and veteran standouts in breaking should factor into the medal hunt in France, including one of Japan's two Opening Ceremony flag bearers, Shigeyuki Nakarai, aka Shigekix.

Two-time world champion sabre fencer Misaki Emura is the other flag bearer, a talented athlete who helps raise the profile of the sport in her homeland.

Interesting Tidbits from 100 Years Ago

Obscure trivia about the first Paris Olympics in 1924: Japan took home one medal 100 years ago, a bronze earned by Katsutoshi Naito, a freestyle wrestler competing in the 61-kg, or featherweight, division.

Naito later immigrated to Brazil and introduced judo and kendo to the local population.

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Author: Ed Odeven

Find Ed on JAPAN Forward's dedicated website, SportsLook. Follow his [Japan Sports Notebook] on Sundays, [Odds and Evens] during the week, and X (formerly Twitter) ＠ed_odeven.